Name
Andrei Naumovich
Job title
Senior Project Manager, Renewables
Organisation
Delta Group
Speaker biography
Andrei Naumovich is a Chartered Engineer with qualifications in Electrical Engineering, Construction Engineering, and Project Management. With more than 25 years of international project experience, he has delivered onshore wind, solar, and BESS projects from feasibility through construction. His expertise spans foundation engineering, grid and electrical balance-of-plant design, procurement strategy, and construction management. Andrei also holds a Master’s Degree in Wind Energy and recently defended his thesis, Monte Carlo-Based CAPEX Modelling and Break-Even Analysis for Offshore Wind Projects in Gippsland, enabling him to connect engineering practice with CAPEX modelling and contribute to policy development for Australia’s offshore wind sector.
Speaking At
AWIF Presentation title
CAPEX Modelling and Break-Even Analysis for Offshore Wind in Gippsland
AWIF Presentation summary
Twelve feasibility licences have been issued, each with distinct geographic, technical, and logistical conditions. Although the region benefits from strong wind resources and access to transmission, it also presents challenges less common in mature offshore markets: deeper waters, longer port distances, uncertain installation logistics, and an emerging local supply chain. These factors introduce significant CAPEX uncertainty that directly shapes LCOE, competitiveness, and project bankability.
This presentation introduces a unified engineering–economic framework using harmonised global cost data, detailed cost decomposition, and 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulations. The approach quantifies how water depth, distance from landfall, cable length, and spatial power density structurally influence total CAPEX and LCOE for each Gippsland project. Three Australian local-content scenarios—LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH—are evaluated to reflect current fabrication and port-development capabilities.
Results reveal a consistent hierarchy driven by site conditions. Only two feasibility-licence areas—FL01 Blue Mackerel and FL06 Star of the South—approach Tier-1 international cost levels. Most others sit 20–40% above the UK benchmark after depth and logistics effects are modelled. These outcomes help explain why developers often surrender licences following detailed geotechnical and logistics studies: cost structures become uncompetitive long before FID. The model also shows that around 10% of total CAPEX must be invested upfront in development activities, fully at risk without revenue support. Consequently, mid-tier and deep-water projects are unlikely to proceed without long-term price mechanisms and coordinated national investment in ports and supply capability.
This presentation introduces a unified engineering–economic framework using harmonised global cost data, detailed cost decomposition, and 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulations. The approach quantifies how water depth, distance from landfall, cable length, and spatial power density structurally influence total CAPEX and LCOE for each Gippsland project. Three Australian local-content scenarios—LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH—are evaluated to reflect current fabrication and port-development capabilities.
Results reveal a consistent hierarchy driven by site conditions. Only two feasibility-licence areas—FL01 Blue Mackerel and FL06 Star of the South—approach Tier-1 international cost levels. Most others sit 20–40% above the UK benchmark after depth and logistics effects are modelled. These outcomes help explain why developers often surrender licences following detailed geotechnical and logistics studies: cost structures become uncompetitive long before FID. The model also shows that around 10% of total CAPEX must be invested upfront in development activities, fully at risk without revenue support. Consequently, mid-tier and deep-water projects are unlikely to proceed without long-term price mechanisms and coordinated national investment in ports and supply capability.
