Name
Andrei Naumovich
Job title
Master of Wind Energy
Organisation
DTU
Speaker biography
Andrei Naumovich is a Chartered Engineer with qualifications in Electrical Engineering, Construction Engineering and Project Management, and more than 20 years of international experience delivering complex infrastructure and renewable energy projects across Europe, Asia and Australia. His expertise spans wind turbine foundation engineering, electrical balance-of-plant design, constructability optimisation, procurement strategy and construction management.
Alongside his industry role in Australia’s renewable energy sector, Andrei completed a Master of Wind Energy at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), where he conducted independent academic research focused on offshore wind project economics and cost drivers. His recently defended thesis, Monte Carlo-Based CAPEX Modelling and Break-Even Analysis for Offshore Wind Projects in Gippsland, Australia, examined CAPEX structures and identified key cost drivers across 12 feasibility licence areas in the Gippsland offshore wind zone. His presentation will share key findings from this research, focusing on CAPEX estimation, site constraints and their influence on market dynamics and offshore wind investment decisions.
By combining EPC delivery experience with advanced academic research, Andrei brings a practical perspective on how engineering decisions influence project economics and how policy mechanisms can impact project viability and industry development.
Alongside his industry role in Australia’s renewable energy sector, Andrei completed a Master of Wind Energy at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), where he conducted independent academic research focused on offshore wind project economics and cost drivers. His recently defended thesis, Monte Carlo-Based CAPEX Modelling and Break-Even Analysis for Offshore Wind Projects in Gippsland, Australia, examined CAPEX structures and identified key cost drivers across 12 feasibility licence areas in the Gippsland offshore wind zone. His presentation will share key findings from this research, focusing on CAPEX estimation, site constraints and their influence on market dynamics and offshore wind investment decisions.
By combining EPC delivery experience with advanced academic research, Andrei brings a practical perspective on how engineering decisions influence project economics and how policy mechanisms can impact project viability and industry development.
Speaking At
Presentation title
CAPEX Modelling and Break-Even Analysis for Offshore Wind in Gippsland
Presentation summary
Twelve feasibility licences have been issued, each with distinct geographic, technical, and logistical conditions. Although the region benefits from strong wind resources and access to transmission, it also presents challenges less common in mature offshore markets: deeper waters, longer port distances, uncertain installation logistics, and an emerging local supply chain. These factors introduce significant CAPEX uncertainty that directly shapes LCOE, competitiveness, and project bankability.
This presentation introduces a unified engineering–economic framework using harmonised global cost data, detailed cost decomposition, and 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulations. The approach quantifies how water depth, distance from landfall, cable length, and spatial power density structurally influence total CAPEX and LCOE for each Gippsland project. Three Australian local-content scenarios—LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH—are evaluated to reflect current fabrication and port-development capabilities.
Results reveal a consistent hierarchy driven by site conditions. Results reveal a consistent hierarchy driven by site conditions. Only two feasibility-licence areas approach international cost levels. Most others sit 20–40% above the UK benchmark after depth and logistics effects are modelled. These outcomes help explain why developers often surrender licences following. Most others sit 20–40% above the UK benchmark after depth and logistics effects are modelled. These outcomes help explain why developers often surrender licences following detailed geotechnical and logistics studies: cost structures become uncompetitive long before FID. The model also shows that around 10% of total CAPEX must be invested upfront in development activities, fully at risk without revenue support. Consequently, mid-tier and deep-water projects are unlikely to proceed without long-term price mechanisms and coordinated national investment in ports and supply capability.
This presentation introduces a unified engineering–economic framework using harmonised global cost data, detailed cost decomposition, and 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulations. The approach quantifies how water depth, distance from landfall, cable length, and spatial power density structurally influence total CAPEX and LCOE for each Gippsland project. Three Australian local-content scenarios—LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH—are evaluated to reflect current fabrication and port-development capabilities.
Results reveal a consistent hierarchy driven by site conditions. Results reveal a consistent hierarchy driven by site conditions. Only two feasibility-licence areas approach international cost levels. Most others sit 20–40% above the UK benchmark after depth and logistics effects are modelled. These outcomes help explain why developers often surrender licences following. Most others sit 20–40% above the UK benchmark after depth and logistics effects are modelled. These outcomes help explain why developers often surrender licences following detailed geotechnical and logistics studies: cost structures become uncompetitive long before FID. The model also shows that around 10% of total CAPEX must be invested upfront in development activities, fully at risk without revenue support. Consequently, mid-tier and deep-water projects are unlikely to proceed without long-term price mechanisms and coordinated national investment in ports and supply capability.
